I'm Thomas, a forecaster focused on AI progress. I trade on Manifold Markets as @Bayesian, currently #1 on the AI topic leaderboard and #2 all-time by profit.
I'm a research consultant contracting for Nascent, doing independent forecasting and quantitative AI research. Earlier in 2026 I wrote questions for the 2026 AI Forecasting Survey as a contractor for Sage Future. Before that, I co-built AlignmentSearch, a retrieval-augmented system over the Alignment Research Dataset. aisafety.info then hired me for a summer to bring that approach to their chatbot.
In 2025, I built bayesianbot, a cross-venue arbitrage bot copy-trading Polymarket prices into Manifold.
In 2026, I've been collecting datasets related to AI progress, like benchmark scores, model facts, etc. and displaying some associated plots on my plots page.
I'm finishing a BSc in Mathematics and Computer Science at McGill, in Montreal.
Track record
I'm the #1 trader on Manifold's AI topic — about 3.3× the profit of the #2 trader — and #2 all-time across the whole platform.
Want to bet on something, or want a forecast on an AI-related question that matters to you? Message me on Manifold or Twitter.